The Fallacy of Running Bad

(I had a few drinks late last night, and I'm still not 100%, but I think this post makes sense, and I apologize if it doesn't)

I was talking to a friend of mine yesterday about fallacies, (this bitch loves fallacies) and I started to think about a logic trap that a lot of us seem to fall into. Then I continued the conversation and made a mental note to write about my thoughts later. And we also played darts. Everyone who's anyone knows about the Gambler's Fallacy, which is the age old incorrect thinking along the lines of "Well I just lost five spins on the roulette wheel. I'm due. I'm probably gonna win this next one."

I would probably win the next one because I'm really good at roulette, but we all know that for most people, they are just as likely to win as they were on their 1st spin, their 3rd spin, and on any other. The spins are independent. So, how does this relate to running bad? I'll tell you. Probably soon.

I've realized that I hate the term 'running bad'.

I hear people say all the time that they're running bad. I say it. You probably say it. I also hear people say things like, "Thank god, I finally pulled out of my downswing."

Very smart, logical players seem to think that they are more likely to win in their next session if they've won thier last, and vice versa. They feel like they are more or less likely to win their coinflips, get sucked out on, or whatev. Basically the opposite of the Gambler's Fallacy. They don't say it out loud, and they probably don't explicitly think it, but subconciously it's there.

"I'm running bad" means that you are in the middle of a downswing. You are currently running bad. Not past tense. That means that you somehow know that you will continue to run bad the next time you play. Saying that you've pulled out of a downswing means that you think that you are now finished running bad, and you are now back to average or above average luck for at least a little while. Ask yourself honestly if this is the attitude you have when in these situations.

The funny thing about this thinking is that it seems to come true more often than it should if poker sessions are independent events. (Of course long term swings happen even when events are independent, but they seem to happen even moreso than they should) Well, that's because poker sessions are not independent events. When you have been running bad, you have a worse attitude. You play worse. You either take gambles you shouldn't or tighten up to the point of exploitablility, or whatever. When you are running good, you play better, have more confidence in your reads, etc.

I think that a large portion of the change in play you experience can be attributed to how you think you are currently running, or in other words, how you think you are going to run this hand, this session, this week. So, when you have recently run bad (I'm being very careful with my wording here, and from now on) if you could get into the right mindset and realize that all poker sessions are (or can ideally be) independent, you could actually make it so. In the biz, we call that a self fulfilling prophecy.

Think of an airplane. Got it? Sweet. When an airplane takes off, it needs to it needs to start it's engines, make sure everyone has their seatbelts on, and double check for terrorists and stuff. Then it slowly starts to move, speeds up, and eventually is in the air. Then it gradually gains altitude until it reaches the correct flying height. You chill there for a while. Similar things happen on the way down as on the way up. They make you stow your luggage, turn off your ipod, and basically force you to talk to the guy next to you. They decelerate, probably do some stuff with the wings, and you slowly descend and land.

People seem to think of their luck as an airplane. They've been running bad, so they'll slowly start running better and eventually start running average. Then hopefully, they'll start to approach running good. They can't really control which way the plane is going, but they just accept the cycles it takes.

You should realize that this makes no sense. Your luck shouldn't go in cycles. It shouldn't be an airplane. You should have some futuristic random teleportation machine that instantly zaps you from the ground to 20,000 ft and everywhere inbetween. From yesterday's average session, you can instantly teleport to a great session today. You can even teleport mid session! And these sessions will tend to average out to normal luck.

So, every time you sit down to play, you are likely to win (if you are a winning player). It doesn't matter where you were yesterday. You don't have to gradually slow down or speed up. You don't have to do [censored] with your wings. Don't think of it as a slow process, and please stop talking about how you are running bad. Say whatever you want, as long as it's correct. I ran bad. I've been running bad. I ran super hot yesterday. But unless you know that you are going to keep losing coinflips and getting sucked out on, you can't know for a fact that you are running bad. I want someone who reads this post to have a conversation with a poker friend like this:

A: "How're you doing?"
Larry: "I ran bad."
A: "Oh, that sucks. But you're running better now?"
Larry: "No. Are you retarded? Like seriously... are you? All I meant is that the last few times I've played, I was unlucky. I have no idea how lucky I'll be next time. I'm not a MFing psychic. MFer."

(Hopefully someone here's name is Larry and his friends name is A, and he has a bad temper.)

Remember this post, and everytime you start a session after running bad, or even in the middle of a bad session, relax, take a breath, and just teleport.

Went Deep in the Rebuy

I played the $1k rebuy yesterday. Or the day before maybe. I'm not sure.

I went deep with a big stack but ended up busting out with TP vs. a flush draw. Had I held up, I would've been 5th in chips with 100 players left. But that's tournament poker I guess.

Interestingly enough, two of the hands that made me the most money were the two biggest mistakes I made.

The first was early, in the third level, just after the rebuy period was over. I had 7k chips. (Blinds 50/100) A semi-famous asian pro who I didn't recognize raised to 275 UTG with about 4k chips. He was verry aggressive, so that didn't worry me much. I look down at AKcc UTG+1 and just call. Then, Isabelle Mercier raises to 1100 UTG+3 with 8.5k chips. She's aggresive in spots where she thinks no one has much, but she had been mostly solid. It's folded back to me. I think for a while and push. She calls with QQ, and with a K46 flop, I win the hand.

I think that I should've folded when it got back around to me. She isn't making a play like that with AQ, so it's only AK and JJ+. I'm behind that range, and I don't have good enough odds to gamble there.

The next mistake led to a good play. The same asian pro from the last hand opens to 550 from the CO. (Blinds 100/200, 25a). I call on the button with 22. All fold.

Flop is 8Q4r. He checks to me. I bet, but I accidentally underbet. I fired like 700 into a 1600 chip pot. He raised to like 2k. I knew that he had nothing, because he wouldn't check the flop there with a hand. I was sure he just took my bet as weakness. I raised to 4k, which put him almost all in, and he folded.

Ummm. Other hands... Oh okay. I have two J7s hands that were sorta interesting.

Blinds 150/300, 25a. This one's only interesting because of the big name players.

Greg Raymer opens to 800 in MP. Chip Jett calls. Raymer has about 16k, and Jett has 20. I have about 18k, and call on the button with J7s. Blinds fold.

Flop is Jxxr. Checked to me, and I bet 2k. Raymer calls, Jett folds.

Turn A. Check, check.

River x. Raymer bets 2k, I call. He has TT, and I win.

Next hand is right before the dinner break. Dude raises to 800 UTG+1 with 16k. Jett calls with 22k and I call on the button with J7s and about 25k. The UTG+1 raiser looks really nervous for the entirety of this hand. I don't have a whole bunch of live experience, but I thought he was pretty strong.

Flop 873 rainbow. I had mid pair and a backdoor flush draw and straight draw. Since we were so deep, you have to take backdoor draws and 2pr draws into consideration, especially in position.

UTG+1 bets 1500. Jett calls. I call.

Turn A. Checked around.

River J, giving me two pair. UTG+1 bets 2500, Jett folds. I decide to just call after weighing my options. UTG+1 shows AA for top set.

The hand I went out on was frustrating. I had 22k in chips and blinds were 300/600 with 75a. Jett raises from the CO to 2400, which was standard for him. He covers me with 30k in chips. I make it 7k from the SB with JTdd. He calls.

Flop T42,with two heards. I push for the size of the pot. Jett calls with 98hh, and you know the rest.

I'm not sure of the way I played it. With Jett's range there preflop, I'm not gonna fold my JTs, but stack sizes are strange for a raise, and I hate calling OOP. I think I should've raised a little more preflop, but if I make it like 9k, I have to call a push. I dunno.

Hopefully I'll run really hot one of these days and win a bracelet. I'll try to keep you updated.

First Couple Events

Hey kids. I'm in Vegas and have played my first two series events. A $1500 NLHE and a $1500 PLHE. I ended up getting 191st of 2700 in the first and not cashing in the second. I'll try to recount some interesting hands here if I can. I don't have the hand memory that some people do apparently, so the details may be off. Whatev.

First Event Hands:

We start with 1500 chips and the blinds start at 25/25. Pretty bad structure. First hand of note...

I have A8o in the SB. Blinds are 25/25. Folded to the button who open limps. I think 'hey, weird play' and I check. BB checks. Flop A92 with 2 clubs. I have no clubs. I check, bb checks, button thinks and bets 50. I call, BB folds.

Turn is an 8, non club. I check, he bets 150. I consider raising, but I call. I think a push may have been best, but there's only like 325 in the pot, and if he is ahead, it'll cost my stack. If there were 5-600 in the pot, I prolly push. I also was thinking the whole time 'he doesn't have an ace. Even though I had no read on him, I figure almost no one open limps AT+ on the button there. And I think most people raise A2, and some fold, and a few I guess open limp. So, because I didn't think he had an ace, I was thinking he had air, a flush draw, or a set most of the time, with a large emphasis on the draw or air, and maybe A2 or A9 a small %.

River is a 9, which is ugly at first glance, but didn't change much according to the range I had him on. I check, he bets 200, and I call. He says "An ace is good" and I flip up my hand and win the pot

25/50, I have 2300 and raise KK to 150 in MP. Tomer Benvenisti calls from the SB with 1500. He's been very active. Much too LAG in my opinion. Flop is Js4d7d. He checks, I bet 200, he raises to 600 right away. I push, which I'm sure was the right play against him. He calls with KdJd and hits a diamond on the river, and I'm down to 700ish.

An orbit later, I have 650ish in EP and I limp QQ. MP makes it 200, and all fold. I push. He calls AJo and I hold up.

I gotta run, but I'll update with more hands later.

The Squeaky Wheel Gets the Website Update

I'm really sorry I haven't been posting. I went from spending 2 weeks visiting family to downloading like $150 on TV shows from iTunes and watching them for a couple weeks straight. I've played about 10 hours of poker in the last 4 weeks, and because of that I haven't really been thinking about poker. Because of that, I haven't been writing about poker. But I keep getting bugged to update this thing, so here you go.

In a week, I'm going home to see family, and after 10 days there I'm going to Vegas for a month and a half for the WSOP. I really have no idea how my schedule will be there, so I can't promise a certain amount of updates, nor can I say for sure that there won't be any. I will bring everything I need to record videos (a computer, a microphone, and my mouth), and maybe I'll be able to get the site launched before then.
Hopefully I'll be able to give tournament trip reports from WSOP events while I'm in Vegas. That would prolly be interesting.

I have had trouble getting in touch with my web programmer/designer, but I'll finally focus on that this month.

I've realized that I don't have the commitment or work ethic to make myself do things that I don't want to do. Like, ever. So, I can't rely on myself to come out with x number of videos, articles, or site updates every month Sometimes I just don't feel like it. Because of that, I'm going to replan a bit. There will still be a site. I'm just going to ask for help from other people.

Anyways, you can expect some posts in the next week. Thanks for checking back, and I apologize again for how slow I've been.

Sup

Hey guys. I know I've been slow, but there hasn't been much to talk about. I'm visiting family for the next 10 days (and the last 4) so no poker playing for a lil bit.

I still might post some thoughts soon.

Also, the site is starting to come along. I have a handful of videos recorded, but I'm getting more comforatble with it and should be able to make a bunch when I get back into town. Our replayer is well into development and should be done fairly soon. The site design is finished, but we're still working out some kinks.

I'll update you soon.

My Thoughts on Goals and Poker Leads to a Lot of Rambling

I've said this before, although I don't think here. Maybe I just said it to some friends: I think it is very important to identify your goals as a poker player so that you can act in a way to achieve them.

Do you just want to have fun playing? What’s fun for you? What would keep you from having fun? Do you want to make money? How much? When? In the next two weeks? For the next 10 years of your life? Can the big money wait? Do you want to keep getting better? At what game? Why?

People have all different kinds of motivations for playing, and nobody’s reason is more or less important than anyone else’s. What’s important is that you identify your motivation, and act in a way that puts you on the path to achieving your goals.

I’m mostly gonna be talking about myself here, but you can apply the thought process I use to whatever your personal goals are.

I have a few reasons for playing. I started playing because I enjoy it. Do I enjoy multi-tabling for many hours a week? No. So there are other reasons for why I do that. Firstly I want to make money. I would really like to be financially secure for the rest of my life. I don’t know how long poker will be as profitable as it is now, so I would like to make as much money in the near future as I can. That way I can save up and hopefully provide myself with a cushion for a long time. All the while, I’d like to be improving so that I can make money in the future. I’ve often bypassed some hourly rate in order to improve faster, and unless you have pressing financial needs, I suggest doing the same. This means playing less tables. Hiring coaches. Spending more time studying the game. Etc.

The main goal I have, which is just a personality trait I’ve always had, is to be the best at everything I try. I don’t mean the best I can possibly be. I mean better than everyone else. Unrealistic? Sure. But I will never be content or satisfied being anything less.

I have recently started playing primarily cash games. I haven’t given up on tournaments. I’m just focusing my energy in one place right now. I’ve played everything from 3/6nl to 50/100nl, all 6max, with the majority (95%) of my play at 5/10 and 10/20. I have learned enough at this point to be a winner at 5/10 and 10/20 consistently, but I think that I may be more profitable at 5/10 than 10/20 at this time.

The style of play, or one of the styles of play, that I was taught, is much more tight-passive than the strategy used by the majority of top NL players. I’m good with table selection, and I don’t tilt much. With all that, my numbers at 5/10 are very good. About as good as the top players at that level on Party Poker. In addition, I think that I play as many tables, or more tables, than most of the top players there. With that, I have a very solid hourly rate. So, as far as my money goals are concerned, I’m doing well there.

However, when I go to play 10/20, I notice a problem. I can still beat the game. But when I play against the top players at 10/20, it is very apparent that they are better than me. I know that I’ve been playing cash games for a few months, and that many of the top players have been at it for years, but that doesn’t help me much. I can’t stand knowing with certainty that I am outclassed by another player. I’m honest with myself, so I can admit that they’re better. I just don’t like it.

When looking at the styles of all of the top winners, I notice that all of them are significantly more aggressive than me. They play a style that puts a lot of their chips at risk all the time, and it scares their opponents into making mistakes. This is true for most of the top players at 5/10 and almost all of the top players at 10/20 and above. So, if I want to beat the bigger games consistently, I probably will have to adopt this playing style, or some variation of it. In order to be the best poker player, I have to be able to beat the top players in these games, right?

Well, yes and no. Mostly yes, but sorta no.

As you may know, I have hired multiple coaches in my poker career, because I care more about becoming a better player than I do about the money it costs to hire them. The last coach I hired, Tommy Angelo (www.tiltless.com), taught me a lot of things that I never thought had anything to do with being a good poker player. Since then, I’ve been rethinking some things.

Up to this point, I had been aiming to become the best, without ever considering what that meant. I guess if I had to quantify what it means to be the best poker player in the world, I would have said one who is a favorite over anyone else Heads Up. I’m not sure if there is anyone that actually is a favorite over everyone else because many players play best against a particular style of play. (To clarify, I’ve been talking about NLHE, because that’s the game I play. Obviously the best NLHE player doesn’t necessarily = the best poker player) So it could be like a rock, paper, scissors kinda thing, where Bob beats Joe, Joe beats Nancy, and Nancy beats Bob. Who’s the best then? I dunno. But let’s pretend that it was somehow quantifiable, like take the top 20 players and match them all HU against each other, and whoever has the highest total EV.

So, would that person be the best player in the world? Probably, by my definition. However some might argue otherwise. I mean, what’s the point? You aren’t gonna make much money playing against the other top players. Why do you need to be able to beat them?

I made a realization today. Being the best poker player in the world and being the best professional poker player in the world are not the same thing.

Poker (gambling in general) is unique in that it’s a game of skill that absolutely revolves around money. Most games have other focuses. In chess, your ‘weapons’ are the pieces; your pawns, your knights, etc. In Scrabble, you use your letter square thingies. In poker, in addition to your cards, money is your weapon. That fact completely changes the nature of the game, because you are using something that you can also use in the real world. I’ve never been playing Scrabble and been like, “Oh man. I could use this Z on that triple letter score space, but I need it to take my friend to the zoo later.” (That’s the best analogy I could come up with)

So, what does it mean then, to be the best professional poker player in the world? Well, take any other job. What factors make a job desirable to you? What are some of the attributes of a great job? Good pay. Good hours. A job you enjoy. Low levels of stress. There are planty. (That was supposed to be ‘plenty’ but I’m gonna keep it, because I like that typo)

I realize now, that whether he knew it or not, Tommy was teaching me to be a professional poker player more than he was teaching me to be a poker player. So many of the things I learned will help me make more money, enjoy playing, not get stressed out, and most of these were things not really related to the game of poker. But even the style of play I was taught, I realize now, is best for making consistent money while reducing swings and stress.

So let’s go back to the question of where I want to be in regards to cash games. If I were to learn to play 10/20nl with the style of many of the top players there, I would have enormous swings. My hourly rate would be better than my current one, but I wouldn’t be able to put in the same number of hours. I would have too many losing days, and I’d get stressed out and have to quit for a day or two. It might affect my life outside poker. I probably wouldn’t find playing as relaxing and fun. I might not even make as much money per year if the swings cause me to take too much time off, or worse, if they cause me to tilt away money.

Do I still want to be able to do this? Yes. I will learn how to crush the 10/20 game, and how to play a super LAG style. If nothing else, I’ll be able to see whether I like it better or not, and I’ll have the style in my arsenal for when a game situation dictates I play that way. I’ll continue learning new styles and find out how to beat the 25/50 game, and the 50/100 game. That’s just the way I am. I wouldn’t stay content forever with just making a great living at 5/10. It took me about one and a half years to be comfortable playing against any player in the world in a single table tourney. Maybe in a little over a year I’ll be able to say the same thing about cash games. Maybe it’ll be longer. Maybe it won’t happen.

But I don’t mind waiting. In the meantime, while I’m achieving my goals of enjoying the game and making good money, when I find myself in a 10/20 game, and notice a top super-aggressive player running over the table, I won’t be discouraged anymore by knowing that he’s a better poker player than me. Hey, I still might be the best professional poker player at that table.

I'm about to write things, I promise.

This is more a reminder and push for me to write down some thoughts I have than anything else.

Look forward to seeing a post on the biggest decisions you will ever make, and an article on variance, playing styles, goals, and my personal decisions.

See you soon.

(That first one is way over-hyped by the description, by the way.)

10% Interest

I think it's important to note when people take interest in pots. By that, I mean, when they have an urge to go to war over a pot without much of a hand, as opposed to when they'll just play it straightforwardly.

People are much more likely to take interest in a pot if they raised preflop. Sometimes, for this reason, it's good to lead out into aggressive preflop raisers when you flop a big hand. They often think something along the lines of "what?! I'm supposed to continuation bet here!! This is my pot!' and then raise with nothing. Also, as you should be able to see, bluffing into the preflop raiser doesn't work well against most opponents.

Players tend to take more interest in short handed pots. It makes sense. There are less people seeing the flop, and therefore someone is less likely to have connected with the flop. Sometimes a a great spot to bluff is in a 5-6 handed pot, when everyone is checking. They don't get so suspicious when you bluff into that many people.

You should be looking out for pots where players aren't taking interest, and picking them up. They will add up after a little while. Be aware of when other players might take interest, and bluff/value bet accordingly.

Winner = Me

Won my WSOP ME seat tonight in a Stars $615+35 MTT Satellite. It was, by far, the most crazy and intense tourney I've ever been in/seen. I can't begin to describe the number of times that we had 27-29 players left (26 seats) and the short stack survived an all in in the most improbable way.

Anyways, congrats to me. Now I don't have to buy in.

I also have some good ideas in the works to post here, so look out for updates soon.

When Sharks Become Fish

I suspect that a lot of semi-pros are breakeven, slight winners, or slight losers in the mid/late-game portion of SNGs.

I have a theory on why this is. I'm gonna say it now. The theory.

When you have something like 12-15 BBs and a decent hand (KQs, 99, AJo), it is arguably the most difficult part of an STT.

Ideally, the correct play in most of these scenarios is to raise a small amount (I like 2.25-2.5 BBs) and then evaluate based on the action. Often, if you get action, it will be a push preflop. Then you decide if you are ahead of their range/have odds to call, and make your decision. Sometimes you are called and have to make a decision regarding continuation betting for a huge chunk of your stack.

The reason this play (raising a small amount) becomes difficult to make, or maybe even wrong, is that when multitabling we don't have good reads on our opponents. Because of this, we make a lot of 'mistakes' when we decide to raise and get pushed on, or when we get called and take a flop. By 'mistakes' I mean entirely correct plays based on the information we have, but mistakes based on the actual range of hands that the unknown villain would push with, especially since at this stage of SNGs, your opponents play very differently from each other.

So, because we make 'mistakes' after raising in spots like these, we often will just make the smaller mistake of folding them in the first place (generally speaking) even when it's technically wrong to do so.

(I've never used PAHUD or any other display software for SNGs, but I'm thinking that they could be very helpful for this reason.)

Thoughts? Also, anyone who's a winning player with over 1k SNGs in a database, what's your worst level by bb/hand? How bad is it?

Just a Thought on Position

I've always played with this idea in mind, but I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere else.

Basically, if you are in position, you have an advantage on every street that bets go in on. (There are some execptions, especially in tourneys) Out of position, you are at a disadvantage on each street that a bet goes in on. Therefore, when decisions to call/raise or bet/check are close, you should choose the one that will allow you to make more betting decisions if in position, and less betting decisions if OOP.

To clarify, for example, when deciding to either call and see the turn or go all in on the flop, lean towards calling if in position and pushing if OOP if it's close otherwise.

Site Update

Hey kids,

I thought I'd let you guys know what's going on with the website. The planned launch date was around now, the beginning of April.

As you can see, the site is not launched yet. Most of that is my fault. I never was one to finish my homework on time, and I just haven't put enough time into making the content of the site. I don't want to launch and have like 3 videos for you to watch, so I'm waiting until I have a decent amount of content.

I've even asked a few players to make videos for the site, but they haven't come up with any yet.

Anyways, my new projected launch date is the beginning of May. Until then, I'll try to muster up some content, and update this bad boy every once in a while.

Thanks for your patience.

Been Slow

Hey guys. I know I haven't posted much recently. I've been playing a lot though. I'll likely have some ideas to write about soon, but nothing has struck me yet.

Please ask me any questions you might have, or request an essay on a certain topic. It might give me an idea of something to talk about.

Just Some Stuff

If you've been following my challenge updates, then you'll notice that I started out very hot, and just recently slowed down with a bad run. Since I am still well ahead of schedule, I'm gonna take a day or two or three off, depending on how I feel, to study the game a bit more. I am sure that I'm a significant enough winner to meet my goals, but I have this thing where I don't like it when I know that some of my opponents are better than me, and that is the case at 10/20nl right now.

Hopefully I'll figure some things out, and maybe post about them here.

I've been told, and I agree, that whenever you have the urge to improve your game, just act on it. For some people it doesn't come around often.

I'll be looking into a lot of math, and into strategies for combatting specific player types. I'm sure it'll help. And it can't hurt much. I still have over 7 weeks left in the challenge.

--------------------------------------------------------------

I'm going to answer a couple of the comments on this here, so that people don't miss them. I think I was pretty vague in the above post.


"2006-04-04 @ 18:57 by Hackmonkey

Where do you find this kind of help/info, "strategies for combatting specific player types". What are your learning resources. Love the Blog..thanks..keep it up. "

There are a couple of options. My problem is that I'm new at NL cash, so not much is standard for me. I keep learning as I go. What I was planning on doing was simply sitting down and thinking. A lot. Likely with the help of some poker calculators. I primarily would like to learn to combat the super LAG, who reraises a very wide range preflop, and puts you to the test on every street, especially if you show weakness.

I just have to figure out when I should call a preflop 3bet, when to raise, and how often to play back at him/slowplay him. It's kind of a math/logic puzzle.

Another, maybe easier way to learn, would be to hire a coach who has experience in this area, or watch a good player play in situations that you are having trouble in.

"2006-04-04 @ 18:58 by Ilya

hey,

when you say "lots of math," do you mean algebra, or something more advanced?"

Nothing more advanced. Sklanky seems to believe that these super LAG players (who are significant winners, by the way) are very exploitable. I bet he will write about it in his new book, but I don't really wanna wait. I want to see if I can figure out why and how. Actually, I know why and how according to Sklansky (they play too many hands too aggresively, and just play solid) , but I wanna prove it to myself.

River Ramblings

Oh, alliteration. You're fun.

I think that players have a lot of trouble with examining odds. Specifically on the river. And they likely don't even know that it's a huge leak, especially in deep stack poker where there is usually plenty of decision making on the river.

River decisions are so important. It's where a great player gains a huge edge. The bet sizes on the river are the biggest of any point in the hand, and each player has more information on the others' hand strength than at any other point in the hand. Playing HU vs. a player just like you in every way, besides the fact that you can analyze the river better, would make you a significant favorite.

I likely am not about to tell you anything you don't know, but you may not use these concepts correctly, so listen up.

Calling bluffs on the river

When someone makes a large river bet, and is clearly representing a strong hand, your hand strength usually doesn't matter very much. Top set is pretty much as valuable as any pair or often Ace high if they are repping the nut flush or straight. What matters in these situations are the odds you are getting to call, and the way the opponent played the hand. I may get more in depth in an article, but for now, I'll say a couple things. See if the line the villain took makes sense for the hand he is representing. See if he could've missed a draw, or may have sensed weakness from you. Then examine the odds.

Everyone knows that if your opponent bets the full pot on the river, you have to win 1/3 times to call. But so many people don't act like they know that. Some think "I'm prolly behind. Fold," which is wrong because it's correct to call if you think you are good 40% of the time. Some other people think, "Could he possibly be bluffing? Yeah? Call." No. It's 1/3 of the time. Are you good that often or not? That's all there is to it.

River. Checked to you. Value bet? Bluff?

When checked to, a lot of players will value bet if they think they have the best hand. Actually, thinking that you have the best hand is sort of irrelevant to the decision. You have to think about what hands he will call you with, and how you rate against them. So many people are afraid to put more chips into the pot unless they are almost sure they're ahead. Do you realize how often you need to be ahead of their calling range to value bet? Do you? 51%. (Assume we aren't gonna be c/r bluffed for the sake of this argument, which is almost always true at most stakes.)

Every time you miss a bet where they would call you with a range that you are ahead of 60% of the time, you miss out on a lot of money. In a 5/10nl game, the a pot sized river bet can often be ~$500. If you bet that $500 one time, and are called and ahead 60% of the time, you make $100 in equity. $100, for one decision. And that's if you are only ahead of his calling range 60% of the time. I would expect that many players miss value bets like this all the time.

Keep in mind that you need to figure out what hands the opponent might have, and what hands he will call you with. If the opponent played the hand like he was drawing at a straight or flush, and a straight hit, but the flush missed, why would you bet your set? If he had the flush draw, he's folding, and if he had the straight draw, you get called and lose. Your set has no value here. (Of course there are times when he will try to pick off your 'bluff' with A high, or hit a pair while missing a draw, or you misread, but just understand the idea.)

So, what if you wanna bluff the river? What do you have to consider then? Well, the same exact things pretty much. Put him on a range of hands. Then look at how many of those hands beat you. Then look at how many of those that beat you will fold to a bet. Then look at the pot odds, and think about the size of your bet.

One big misconception (and again we're disregarding river c/r bluffs) is that you should check behind if you might have the best hand. Again, thinking you have the best hand doesn't matter. Let's think about it this way, in a really simplified example:

You have AKo, and you missed. The river is checked to you, and you just have a measly Ace high on a board of 2c 3c 8s Jd Qc. Your opponent either has: The nut flush, AJo (pair of Jacks), pocket 6s, ATo, or KTo. Let's say he as an equal likelyhood of each. Some people would check behind here to win the times that the opponent has AT or KT. That is a bad reason to check behind.

Assume he has AT or KT. What if you check? You win the pot. What if you bet? He folds. You win the pot. There's no difference. If you have the best hand, you will win no matter what you do. Some people have this fear of bluffing with the best hand. There's nothing wrong with it, if the situation is right. So, is this one?

You have to ignore the hands that you are ahead of, since you win no matter what you do in those cases. So, the three other possibilities were: He has the nut flush, a pair of Jacks (Ace kicker), or pocket 6s, and he has each 33.3% of the time (that he's ahead of you). You have to decide which of these he'll fold. If you think he'll fold the 6s and Jacks, but call with the nut flush to a pot sized bluff, you have a clear bet. If you think he'll call with the Jacks and flush, but fold the 6s, you have a clear check. If you think that there's a 55% chance he folds the Jacks, then you have a slightly +EV bet.

Next you can mess around with the size of your bluff. Will a pot sized bet take it down twice as often as a 1/2 pot sized bet? Will a 2x pot bet take it down twice as often as a pot sized bet? (weird, but something to think about)

Also, in real life things won't be nearly as clear-cut as in the examples If they were, then Poker would be too easy. Great players can estimate all of these probabilities fairly well on the fly. Some do it intuitively, others may actually go through some calculations in their head. Whatever works for you, get it done.

Crapballs. I keep accidentally writing articles. I just meant for this to be like 2 paragraphs.

I Don't Think I Can Possibly Read Any Better Than This

Rough day of 6max. This is both a bad beat and brag post in one. You can post whatever you want on your own blog.

Yes I realize I was only 60% to win. I don't care. This is one of my favorite hands played by me that I can remember.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$1000)(6 handed)

MP ($1012.00)
CO ($384.00)
Button ($1652.00)
Hero ($1527.15)
BB ($1097.00)
UTG ($953.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ks, Ah.
1 folds,MP raises to $40.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $35.00, 1 folds
Flop: ($90.00) Td, 7d, Qs (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $75.00, Hero calls $75.00.

Turn: ($240.00) 3c (2 players)
Hero checks,MP bets $244.00, Hero raises all-in ($1412.15),MP calls all-in ($653.00)

River: ($2549.15) Qd (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $2549.15.

MP has 9d 8d (a flush, queen high.)
Hero has Ks Ah (a pair of queens.)
Hero wins $515.15.
MP wins $2031.00.

Something Tough for you to Chew On

You should not avoid 'tough' situations in poker. You should avoid -EV situations.

You should not look to put your opponent in 'tough' situations. You should look to put them in situations that make you money.

$42.5k Challenge Updates

I'm gonna just update you guys in this post. I can edit it, so I'd rather keep adding to this post than keep adding more and more posts with nothing more than a quick update.

So far, it's been not great.

Started out 8 tabling 3/6nl, which is more boring than Mrs. Parson's Biology class. just trust me on that one.

I am sure I was plenty +EV, but I ran terribly. Down ~$2k the first day.

I actually think my earn at 3/6nl 8 tabling might be very substantial, even moreso than at SNGs, but I can't handle the boredom.

I played like 5 hours of 5/10nl today, 4-5 tabling. Made about $2500. I ran bad/good. I don't know how to judge my luck when this happens. I think I was dealt good very starting hands on average, but I lost 2 seperate $3k pots when all in as a 90% favorite. So, I was getting sucked out on a decent amount, but I was usually starting ahead.

I think trying to evaluate your luck is a losing battle. If you get all in late in an SNG with AA v KK and he hits a K, were you unlucky? I guess so, but you were just as likely to get all in with KK vs AA as the reverse. I feel no more entitled to a pot like that when I have the best hand, but would've gotten all the money in no matter which side of the advantage I was on. I didn't invent this concept, I've heard it many times. I'm just reproducing it here in case you haven't.

Goal: $42.5k in 9 weeks
So far: +$500 in 2 days
Remaining: $42k in ~9 weeks

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Finally ran well. I played a bunch of 5/10nl today, 4-6 tabling. I like it a lot, but I'm getting a bit bored of it. I may not play much tomorrow, or I may play SNGs.

Goal: $42.5k in 9 weeks
So far: +$6800 in 1/2 week
Remaining: ~$35k in 8.5 weeks

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Crazy, crazy two days. Apparently, the swings at NL cash are kinda big.

Started off terribly, and quickly lost $4k. Stayed there for a while, and called it a day.

Next day, I do great for a while, make $11k in like 6 hours. Then I run terribly/play poorly(?) and lose $8k in 90 minutes. I won't complain about bad beats or anything. And I'll be okay.

Goal: $42.5k in 9 weeks
So far: +$5000 in 1/2 week
Remaining: $37.5k in 8.5 weeks

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

I took a break after the last session, and came back and played another. This one went very well. I'm starting to get really confident in my cash game ability, which makes me extremely happy.


Goal: $42.5k in 9 weeks
So far: +$11,500 in 1/2 week
Remaining: $31k in 8.5 weeks

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Put in like 6-7 hours today. Ran medium. I went from running and playing well to running and playing not so well. I think I need to take more breaks for long sessions. Not that it would help me run better. Just play better.

I started this challenge on Sunday, and I'm not gonna play tonight (Fri) or tomorrow, so this is essentially 1 week. So far, so good.


Goal: $42.5k in 9 weeks
So far: +$13,500 in 1 week
Remaining: $29k in 8 weeks

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Another very good day. My best since I started the challenge actually. I finally burnt out though. This whole last week since I started the challenge, I just kept playing and playing, and didn't get tired of it. Finally did, so no more poker tonight. I'm gonna watch a bunch of Law and Order: CI.


Goal: $42.5k in 9 weeks
So far: +$24k in 1 week
Remaining: $18.5k in 8 weeks

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, I guess I was due for a loss. That's how luck works, right? Played like 45 minutes today and it went terribly. I just stopped for now. I'll play again tonight likely.


Goal: $42.5k in 9 weeks
So far: +$18.5k in 1 week
Remaining: $24k in 8 weeks


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm running so terribly right now that I'm really discouraged to play. Maybe I'll take a couple days off to refocus. It was definitely affecting my game, which is a bad sign. Anyways, I still feel confident about this challenge, but it may not be as easy as it was starting to look.


Goal: $42.5k in 9 weeks
So far: +$13,000 in 1.5 week
Remaining: $29.5k in 7.5 weeks

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, stuff turned around today, for the most part. As you may be able to tell, I didn't take the couple days off, just an evening. I decided that I still play well enough to crush 5/10nl, so I won't play any 10/20 for a while. As long as I stick to 5/10, I don't lose much.


Goal: $42.5k in 9 weeks
So far: +$24.5k in 1.5 week
Remaining: $18k in 7.5 weeks


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Another bad day. Cash games are crazy. Started off winning and then ran very bad. I played okay, which is what counts. sorta.


Goal: $42.5k in 9 weeks
So far: +$19.5k in 1.5 week
Remaining: $23k in 7.5 weeks


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I ran insanely well today. Actually, my luck was really bad at the end, but overall, I definitely can't complain. I'm also proud of myself for quitting when the games got bad. Apparently 80% of the pros come out to play at the same time. I try to pick my tables carefully, which is very important in cash games, and is something that you can't do as much in tourneys.


Goal: $42.5k in 9 weeks
So far: +$32.5k in 2 week
Remaining: $10k in 7 weeks


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I've played a few sessions since my last update, but every one of them has ended around breakeven. So, I'm no closer or farther (further?) away than last time.



Goal: $42.5k in 9 weeks
So far: +$32.5k in 2 week
Remaining: $10k in 7 weeks


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Annnnd back down again. I guess this is how it goes. SNGs didn't have swings like this.


Goal: $42.5k in 9 weeks
So far: +$25k in 2.5 week
Remaining: $17.5k in 6.5 weeks


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm running terribly. Losing a little confidence. Maybe I'll look back at some HHs, or maybe I'll just keep playing.


Goal: $42.5k in 9 weeks
So far: +$16k in 2.5 week
Remaining: $26.5k in 6.5 weeks

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

When I run bad, I tend to play a ton. It's my way of making the long run come sooner I guess. I didn't sleep for 28 hours, and played a ton. Anyone who knows me knows how crazy that is. I ran okay, but gained some ground back just by sheer grinding.


Goal: $42.5k in 9 weeks
So far: +$21k in 2.5 week
Remaining: $21.5k in 6.5 weeks

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Got the confidence back and ran great. I'm starting to play really well. I went back and tried to remember the way I used to play before the bad swing. I realize that I play a different game than most people on 2+2 recommend. I had started to blend it too much with aspects of their game, which didn't fit right. Anyways, my way is working for now.


Goal: $42.5k in 9 weeks
So far: +$35k in 3 week
Remaining: $7.5k in 6 weeks


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Made it. Actually, I've made it a few times and then lost it back, but I think I'm there for good now. Sorry for the lack of updates.


Goal: $42.5k in 9 weeks
Check

Clever Title Related to the WSOP

So, I'm going to Vegas this summer for my first WSOP. (I played a Circuit Event already, but that's different) I just turned 21 in January, so this will be my first chance to play, but the timing worked out, as I wasn't ready to play a year ago.

Anyways, with the time and money going into this site, the Downswing and slow month I had, and taxes, I'm not as well rolled as I'd like to be now. Especially since I wanna play as many events as possible this summer. So, I'm going to decide how much I need to make, and then go make it. I don't want to dip into my current roll to buy into bigger MTTs. So first, my events wishlist:

Tue, Jun 27th to
Tue, Jun 27th No-Limit Hold'em
No Rebuy $1,500+$0

Fri, Jun 30th to
Fri, Jun 30th No-Limit Hold'em Short Handed 6/Table
No Rebuy $2,500+$0

Sat, Jul 1st to
Sat, Jul 1st No-Limit Hold'em
No Rebuy $2,000+$0

Tue, Jul 4th to
Tue, Jul 4th No-Limit Hold'em
No Rebuy $5,000+$0

Fri, Jul 7th to
Fri, Jul 7th No-Limit Hold'em
No Rebuy $2,500+$0

Sat, Jul 8th to
Sat, Jul 8th No-Limit Hold'em
Multi-Rebuy $1,000+$0

Mon, Jul 10th to
Mon, Jul 10th No-Limit Hold'em
No Rebuy $1,000+$0

Thu, Jul 13th to
Thu, Jul 13th No-Limit Hold'em Short Handed 6/Table
No Rebuy $2,500+$0

Fri, Jul 14th to
Fri, Jul 14th No-Limit Hold'em
No Rebuy $2,000+$0

Sun, Jul 16th to
Sun, Jul 16th No-Limit Hold'em Shootout
No Rebuy $2,000+$0

Tue, Jul 18th to
Tue, Jul 18th No-Limit Hold'em
No Rebuy $1,500+$0

Thu, Jul 20th to
Thu, Jul 20th No-Limit Hold'em Short Handed 6/Table
No Rebuy $5,000+$0

Thu, Jul 20th to
Thu, Jul 20th No-Limit Hold'em
No Rebuy $2,000+$0

Sun, Jul 23rd to
Sun, Jul 23rd No-Limit Hold'em
Multi-Rebuy $1,000+$0

Tue, Jul 25th to
Tue, Jul 25th No-Limit Hold'em
No Rebuy $1,500+$0

Fri, Jul 28th to
Thu, Aug 10th No-Limit Hold'em Championship
No Rebuy $10,000+$0

Sat, Aug 5th to
Sat, Aug 5th No-Limit Hold'em
No Rebuy $1,500+$0 (X5)

So, the ones in italics, I'm only going to play if I do particularly well up until then (or win a sat into). They = $20k

I will allot $7k for each $1k rebuy tourney. With that he total not italicized buyins add up to $42.5k. Lemme know if I messed up the math somewhere. I didn't try very hard.

It's March 26th right now. I'm going to a wedding and to visit family in June, so I'd like to get this knocked out before then. So, that's like, 9 weeks or something, right? I also am gonna lose a lot of time making this site, so this'll be harder than I thought.

Anyways, that's the challenge, or target, I should say. $42.5k in 9 weeks. I'm usually not very good at putting in hours, so this is not gonna be easy. But I really do want to play in these events. Ideally, I'll win big in one of them, or run well beforehand, so that i make $62.5k and I can play in the italicized events. If that's the case, I likely will skip a few smaller ones. I doubt I'll have the energy to play this many events anyways. I can only wake up before noon so many days in a week, you know?

So, that's it. I'll update you guys as often as I end up doing it. Maybe a few times a week, maybe more or less. I'll be playing cash games and SNGs mostly. Some MTTs maybe. I probably will just say how much I made or lost without ROI or BB/100 details, just because I don't track my play really. Wish me luck! Pray for me!

Haha. No, just wish me luck.

Give up all Hope

The following things cannot possibly help your game or EV (they could easily hurt):

-Hoping you flop a set
-Hoping he is on a flush draw
-Hoping he has a hand good enough to pay you off
-Hoping he checks behind on the river
-Hoping you run better this session
-etc.

While these thoughts are in your head, you are wasting time that you could be using to think about how to play better.

So, how do you get rid of these thoughts?

How the balls should I know? Good luck with it though.

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